Now that we have solved the oh-so-loved, highschool “will he/won’t he” with Lamar Jackson and Mandatory Minicamp, it’s finally time to change the topic to one that actually matters. “Just how much should this unique QB get paid when he inevitably signs his long term contract? (with the Ravens or elsewhere)”. Is it A-Rod money ($50mil/yr), Mahomes money ($45mil/yr), or more like Dak money ($40mil/yr)? Unfortunately the answer may not be so simple (actually it is, it’s Deshaun Watson’s money plus), but below we will look into why he might be the next player to reset the QB market.

First off, it’s not Who’s Best, it’s Who’s Next.

   This one is pretty straight forward, but the QB market, like every other player position market, VERY RARELY equates to “best player gets the best pay”. The most recent example of this is WR Christian Kirk of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kirk signed a 4 year, $72 mil contract this offseason, despite never having had a 1000-yard season. At the time, this made Kirk the 3rd highest paid receiver, only behind proven #1s DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. It put him on par with Tyreek Hill (before his move to Miami), and paid him more than Stephon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, and Mike Evans. While Kirk is a talented slot receiver, an $18 mil APY was too generous for a player of his caliber. Nonetheless the Jags paid him, and have yet to look back. Of course this was followed by players like AJ Brown, Devante Adams, and Tyreek Hill being traded and resetting the market again and again, with Hill leading it now with his 4 yr/$120mil deal.

   Jaire Alexander, a top 5 cornerback depending on who you ask, just reset the CB market with his 4 year, $82mil deal, eclipsing top CBs like Jalen Ramsey, Denzel Ward, and Xavien Howard. Now chances are Trevon Diggs is next up to reset the market, despite his boom or bust style playmaking, and then who knows after him. The point is that the next great player at a position, whether top ranked, 5th ranked, or 7th, will likely reset the market. Which brings us to our biggest reference point for Lamar Jackson…….

Deshaun Watson.

   Just to be clear, this portion of this article is not about the 24 civil suits Watson is facing right now (or whatever the new total will be by time this article is published). And it’s not about the 66 women that the NY Times reported that Watson met within a 17 month span. No, it’s about how in addition to this, having sat out all of 2021, and arguably likely to miss a good deal of 2022 to suspension, Watson got a new $230mil/6yr contract. All this while having brought to the table a 1-2 postseason record (sound familiar?), having made this postseason 2 of his 1st 4 years as a starter, and a 28-26 career record. Bringing him to the AFC North with this kind of contract all but seals Lamar Jackson’s $40+mil/APY. And with the Baltimore Ravens having picked up his 5th year option (which pays him $23 million this year), Lamar’s complacency and silence is only going to increase his potential payout. Remember, Kyler Murray has been ALOT more vocal about his wanting a new contract, and now talk is that he may get his new contract sometime before minicamp. Being silent and waiting for Kyler’s deal to get done only guarantees a higher payout for Jackson.

In Conclusion

   Look, this isn’t some Lamar Jackson fanboy piece. The reason I decided to write this was to end the “does Lamar Jackson deserve a new contract”” bullshit that has plagued the 2022 NFL offseason. NFL Quarterbacks get paid, regardless of talent. Make any argument you want about guys like Joe Flacco and Kirk Cousins, but Flacco wasn’t even a top 5 QB when he won a Superbowl in 2012; and Kirk Cousins, despite only taking the Vikings to the playoffs ONCE in his 4 years of playing with them, will essentially be the 6th highest paid player in NFL HISTORY come 2023. 

   This just goes to show that talent and success rarely dictate QB payout. Need for a QB dictates that payout, and similarly to how Jerry Jones was forced to give Dak Prescott a new contract after experiencing a season without QB1, Steve Bisciotti will have to make the same move after dropping from an 8-3 record with Lamar Jackson to an 8-9 record without him.

    What do you think? Comment below whether you agree Lamar Jackson deserves a top QB contract in 2022 or whether he still has more to prove?